KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Jan 20, 2029 47.4%En tête parmi 3 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
37 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
343,9 €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
5.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
9 juil. 26, 00:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 14:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
At the end of 2027 will both OpenAI and Anthropic be public companies?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWho trades publicly first: OpenAI or Anthropic?
Manifold MarketsWhich months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiRègles
If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The Financial TimesThe InformationMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforABCNBCThe Washington Postthe Associated PressReutersAxiosFox NewsCNNPoliticoBloomberg NewsCBSCNBCThe New York Times
- Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests.
- This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity.
- Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold.
- Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings.
- Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Jan 20, 2029 à 47% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.