Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Tina Kotek · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
Tina Kotek 94.5%En tête parmi 9 options
Tina Kotek 94.5%Qualité du marché
58 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
913 €
Intérêt ouvert
22 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
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Tina KotekÉcart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 minutes
28 sept. 26, 21:00 UTC4 janv. 27, 13:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Tina Kotek
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris this year?
Manifold MarketsWhich Dems will underperform Kamala?
PolymarketWill Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Kamala Harris announce her presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Kamala Harris be elected governor of California in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris run for California Governor?
KalshiRègles
If Troy Jackson's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Federal Election CommissionMaine Secretary of StateOregon Secretary of StateGeorgia Secretary of StateNew York State Board of ElectionsNew Hampshire Secretary of StateMichigan Secretary of Statethe Florida Division of ElectionsMinnesota Secretary of State
- A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears. Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used. Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. Shares are compared unrounded. Offices: Troy Jackson, U.S. Senate (Maine); Tina Kotek, Governor (Oregon); Keisha Lance Bottoms, Governor (Georgia); Kathy Hochul, Governor (New York); Chris Pappas, U.S. Senate (New Hampshire); Abdul El-Sayed, U.S. Senate (Michigan); Angie Nixon, U.S. Senate (Florida); David Jolly, Governor (Florida); Peggy Flanagan, U.S. Senate (Minnesota). A market resolves NO if the listed person is not the Democratic nominee (for Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee) on that race's 2026 general-election ballot.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Tina Kotek
- If Tina Kotek's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Troy Jackson
- If Troy Jackson's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Peggy Flanagan
- If Peggy Flanagan's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kathy Hochul
- If Kathy Hochul's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Keisha Lance Bottoms
- If Keisha Lance Bottoms's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Abdul El-Sayed
- If Abdul El-Sayed's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Angie Nixon
- If Angie Nixon's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Chris Pappas
- If Chris Pappas's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.
- David Jolly
- If David Jolly's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes.