Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris this year?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleTina Kotek - Oregon Governor 91.9%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-1.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète30 sept. 26, 05:31 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?
KalshiWhich Dems will underperform Kamala?
PolymarketWill Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris be elected governor of California in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris run for California Governor?
KalshiWill Kamala Harris be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves Yes if the listed candidate certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state.Outcome verified from Federal Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of Stateand other secretaries of states in the listed states.
- A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears.
- Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used.
- Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- Shares are compared unrounded.