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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Élection
  3. Next government of the United Kingdom?
Next government of the United Kingdom?

Next government of the United Kingdom?

ÉlectionPolitiqueEuropeOne-OffUS PoliticsChessSports3a
KalshiKalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Reform UK majority
Reform UK majority 15%
En tête parmi 19 options
Qualite du marche

24 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidité

8,5 €

Faible liquidité
Achat / Vente

8.6% / 15.0%

Spread

74.4%

Spread large
Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes

21 mai 26, 14:001 janv. 30, 15:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Reform UK majority15%

Règles

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).

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Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,963.68+2.52%SolanaSOL$65.35+1.78%EthereumETH$1,660.88+1.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.60%XRPXRP$1.12+0.59%BNBBNB$597.16+1.90%

Actualités Associées

Former Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto NewsRussia election odds hold with United Russia leading at ~54.5%Blockchain.NewsU.S. judge blocks Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee after state challengeCrypto NewsTrump walks out of interview after clash over election fraud claims Crypto NewsCongress nears final vote on $70 billion immigration funding packageCrypto News

Règles

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).