Next government of the United Kingdom?
ÉlectionPolitiqueEuropeOne-OffPolitique américaineÉchecsSport3a
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Reform UK majority · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Prix enregistré
Reform UK majority 8.6%En tête parmi 19 options
Reform UK majority 8.6%Qualité du marché
39 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
17,8 €
Intérêt ouvert
2,1 k $US
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
— / —
Reform UK majorityÉcart
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 40 minutes
21 mai 26, 14:00 UTC1 janv. 30, 15:00 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Reform UK majority
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United Kingdom lose any land in the 2020s? 🇬🇧🗺️✌️
Manifold MarketsWill United Kingdom join BRICS before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will King Charles III cease to be King of the United Kingdom?
Manifold MarketsWill Ye visit The United Kingdom this year?
KalshiWill the United Kingdom join the EU?
KalshiRègles
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status. A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature). If a parties description specifies support from one or more named parties, that support is exclusive to the named parties.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Reform UK majority
- If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Reform UK minority
- If Reform UK, with Reform UK not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Reform UK minority + Conservative support
- If Reform UK with the support of the Conservative Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour majority
- If the Labour Party, with the Labour Party holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition
- If the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour minority + Green support
- If the Labour Party with the support of the Green Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour minority
- If the Labour Party, with the Labour Party not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition
- If the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Conservative minority
- If the Conservative Party, with the Conservative Party not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support
- If the Labour Party with the support of the Liberal Democrats exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour minority + SNP support
- If the Labour Party with the support of the Scottish National Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support
- If the Labour Party with the support of the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, the Scottish National Party, and Plaid Cymru exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Reform UK minority + DUP support
- If Reform UK with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition
- If Reform UK, the Conservative Party, and the Democratic Unionist Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Reform UK and Conservative coalition
- If Reform UK and the Conservative Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Conservative minority + Reform UK support
- If the Conservative Party with the support of Reform UK exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Conservative majority
- If the Conservative Party, with the Conservative Party holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Conservative minority + DUP support
- If the Conservative Party with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition
- If the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
