KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 51%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
4,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
48.0% / 51.0%
Écart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
11 mars 26, 19:00 UTC4 mars 27, 13:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRègles
If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Only the first non-preliminary release for each quarter will be considered.
- Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? ?
- Kalshi cote Yes à 51% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? sera-t-il résolu ?
- U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? doit être résolu le 4 mars 2027.
- Comment U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.