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Données au 20 sept. 2026, 21:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Mike Johnson 9%En tête parmi 3 options
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
18,9 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
26 févr. 26, 15:00 UTC3 nov. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
LA-02 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiLA-05 Republican nominee?
KalshiWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsJD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
Manifold MarketsWill Nikki Haley be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 LA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Republican Party of Louisiana
- **Important information:** Louisiana's 2026 U.S. House elections have reverted from closed party primaries to an open "jungle" primary system.
- Under this system, all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party, and the state-administered election does not produce a formal party nominee.
- A candidate's party affiliation on the ballot is an informational designation, not a nomination, and party endorsements do not constitute nominations for purposes of this event.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour LA-04 Republican nominee? ?
- Kalshi cote Mike Johnson à 9% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand LA-04 Republican nominee? sera-t-il résolu ?
- LA-04 Republican nominee? doit être résolu le 3 novembre 2027.
- Comment LA-04 Republican nominee? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 LA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.