JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlectionIA11moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète14 avr. 25, 18:51 UTC30 août 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will JD Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for President?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWill JD Vance win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExNH-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRègles
Being very specific here.
- It's got to be both JD Vance as the nominee, and in his nomination speech he's also got to give a speech where the main topic of the speech is CLEARLY AI. i.e. not just mentioned, but mentioned FIRST if multiple issues are raised; and if multiple issues are mentioned, then impartial textual and emotional analysis should reveal that the major issue he's giving his position on is about AI.
- Deadline: whatever the normal (or rescheduled) republican party is (or the natural successor party, if there is one)
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
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- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention sera-t-il résolu ?
- JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention doit être résolu le 30 août 2027.
- Comment JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Being very specific here.