KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 94%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
345,9 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
5.0% / 6.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
19 août 26, 22:00 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
Marchés ouverts
Bonds & Treasuries
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 résultats de plus
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 k €
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2 k €
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US defaults before 2028? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US defaults before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US defaults before 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment US defaults before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.