US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
One-OffMacro & EconomyBonds & TreasuriesChinaGéopolitique3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.5%
Prévisionnistes
66
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 25, 21:42 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese state-owned enterprises) by their due date at any time before 2027.
- The default must involve at least $100 million USD in missed payments.
- If the US restructures, delays, or partially reduces payments specifically on Chinese-held debt while maintaining payments to other creditors, this will be considered a selective default and resolve as YES.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US defaults on debt held by China before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US defaults on debt held by China before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US defaults on debt held by China before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment US defaults on debt held by China before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese state-owned enterprises) by their due date at any time before 2027.