KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
United States · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
United States 66.5%En tête parmi 5 options
United States 66.5%Qualité du marché
36 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
2,5 €
Intérêt ouvert
1 k $US
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
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United StatesÉcart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 43 minutes
9 oct. 26, 00:00 UTC31 déc. 29, 14:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · United States
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
KalshiWill Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)
Manifold MarketsWill the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
Manifold MarketsWill the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?
Manifold MarketsWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. A model counts for the country where its credited organization is headquartered or, for a division, subsidiary or brand, where its ultimate parent is headquartered (e.g., Google DeepMind counts for the United States). If that country is not listed, every market resolves No.
Règles de chaque résultat
- United States
- If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- China
- If an AI lab based in China has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- France
- If an AI lab based in France has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- United Arab Emirates
- If an AI lab based in the United Arab Emirates has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- South Korea
- If an AI lab based in South Korea has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.