KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Grüne 36.6%-6.0ptEn tête parmi 7 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
46 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
3,5 €
Liquidité
13,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
24 août 26, 21:00 UTC20 sept. 27, 16:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Swedish Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
KalshiBrazil presidential election: 5th place (1st round)
KalshiBrazil presidential election: 4th place (1st round)
KalshiSweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
PolymarketSweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
PolymarketSweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place
PolymarketRègles
If CDU finishes in 4th place in the 2026 Berlin state election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- The party awarded the 4th-highest number of Abgeordnetenhaus seats in the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin's final certified seat allocation resolves YES.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 606,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 721 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 411,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Berlin State Election: 4th Place ?
- Kalshi cote Grüne à 37% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Berlin State Election: 4th Place sera-t-il résolu ?
- Berlin State Election: 4th Place doit être résolu le 20 septembre 2027.
- Comment Berlin State Election: 4th Place est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If CDU finishes in 4th place in the 2026 Berlin state election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Berlin State Election: 4th Place est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.