KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Below 4.6 million sq km 99%+11.0ptEn tête parmi 9 options
Qualité du marché
59 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
132,7 €
Liquidité
7,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
25 juil. 26, 20:00 UTC2 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketWhich Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
FutuurAntarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.8 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the lowest individual daily Extent value reported in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for a date within between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.6 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.5 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.4 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.3 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 232,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 227,3 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 186,1 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Volume total
- 66,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 28,6 k €
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026 ?
- Kalshi cote Below 4.6 million sq km à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026 doit être résolu le 2 octobre 2026.
- Comment Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.8 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.