PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: No
Resuelto: 4 feb 2024, 1:01
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Probabilidad implícita actual
No 100%
Calidad del mercado
15 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconocidaDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 123 días
Desactualizado6 dic 23, 23:1631 dic 23, 0:00
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Reglas
If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only models accessible to the public (e.g. developers or public sign-ups) will count for this market.
- If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that could reach the top of the leaderboard but is not yet ranked at year's end due to time required for evaluation, this market's resolution may be delayed until February 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- If at this point the resolution source still does not list the new model's ELO, the underlying script(s) will be used to determine whether google's model tops the leaderboard.
- Note that the model must be released by the resolution date to be considered (if they release a new version of the model after the resolution date, it will not be considered for this market).
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T+0.3pt98%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 3,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 105,9 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich company does Ox Alpha belong to?
- Z.ai+12.2pt95%
- Google-2.1pt4%
- Nvidia+0.3pt1%
+20 resultados más
KALSHIWhat will Zoom say during their next earnings call?
- Enterprise+3.0pt99%
- Agentic+16.0pt99%
- Contact Center+6.0pt99%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt65.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt11.8%
- Grok+0.4pt10.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 8 M €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- SpaceX-7.5pt58.2%
- Anthropic+4.5pt40.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt1%
+9 resultados más
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba+0.7pt95%
- Z.ai+0.3pt4%
- Moonshot-0.6pt1%
+8 resultados más
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- XRP price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- Highest temperature in Miami on August 25, 2026?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- TOUR Championship Winner
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Google have the best LLM before 2024??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 100% a fecha de 24 de abril de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Google have the best LLM before 2024??
- Está previsto que Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2023.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Google have the best LLM before 2024??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".