PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 27 oct 2026, 16:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Punto medio del libro seleccionado
January 31 · —
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Referencia guardada
January 31 52%
January 31 52%Calidad del mercado
31 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
224,2 €
Liquidez
480,9 €
Baja liquidezInterés abierto
537,8 US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
January 31Spread
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Comentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+17.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 48 minutos
Retrasado29 sept 26, 15:08 UTC31 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- Sí
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · January 31
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 achieve a SOTA score on SciPredict?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
