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June 30 · —
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June 30 72%
June 30 72%Calidad del mercado
25 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
1,2 €
Liquidez
334,5 €
Baja liquidezInterés abierto
1,4 US$
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Actualizado hace 41 minutos
23 oct 26, 21:52 UTC1 jul 27, 3:59 UTC
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Profundidad de mercado · June 30
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Marathon Fusion gold yield of 0.1+ per fusion neutron confirmed by which date?
PolymarketMarathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 1.0 kg by Dec 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://startupfortune.com/marathon-fusion-says-it-turned-mercury-into-gold-no-proof-yet/) Marathon Fusion's paper titled "Scalable Chrysopoeia via (n, 2n) Reactions Driven by Deuterium-Tritium Fusion Neutrons" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.13461) projects gold production of approximately 2 tonnes per gigawatt of thermal fusion power per year, based on neutron transport simulations.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the measured gold yield of a Marathon Fusion mercury-to-gold experiment is confirmed to be within 20% of the yield predicted for that experiment by Marathon Fusion's neutronics simulation, through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below, by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying experiment is one in which stable gold-197 is produced from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators).
- The predicted yield is the number of gold-197 atoms that Marathon Fusion's neutron transport simulation (e.g., OpenMC) calculates for that specific experimental configuration, including its neutron source output, irradiation duration, target geometry, and mercury isotopic composition.
- The predicted yield must be publicly disclosed by Marathon Fusion or included in the publication or confirmation under consideration.
