Probabilidad implícita actual
Chen Yu-jen 92.1%-1.0ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
79 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
5,6 mil €
Liquidez
58,2 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
14 ago 26, 13:04 UTC28 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
