PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado está cerrado y esperando una resolución confirmada.
Esperando resolución verificada
CoinRithm espera una liquidación confirmada por el proveedor antes de tratar este mercado como resuelto.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 oct 2026, 13:06 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
Top 10 99%Líder entre 4 opciones
Top 10 99%Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
13,3 mil €
Liquidez
6,3 mil €
Liquidez mediaInterés abierto
3,4 mil US$
Spread
2.1 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 días
Desactualizado28 oct 26, 21:52 UTC1 jul 27, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Top 1099%
Top 598%
Top 197%
Top 397%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
