Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & CultureTecnología1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 87%
Pronosticadores
1
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado8 jun 26, 8:04 UTC1 feb 28, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketLeague City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
PolymarketWill "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Why Software Automation Is Hard is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abiertos
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 25,3 mil €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volumen total
- 6,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,8 mil €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 6,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volumen total
- 18,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 15,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volumen total
- 136,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 247 €
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.