Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 74.3%
Pronosticadores
90
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado31 dic 23, 13:07 UTC1 ene 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsWill there still be an Apollo moonwalker alive on the day the Artemis III crew walks on the moon?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if we get AGI before a human ventures again onto the Lunar surface.
- AGI questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 74% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again??
- Está previsto que Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2050.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.