Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 4:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 70.9%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 23, 22:36 UTC1 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Vox, a popular news organization.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
