Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 85.5%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 23, 18:38 UTC1 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Tyler Cowen, economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
Mercados abiertos
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Volumen total
- 12,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 11,2 M €
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 resultados más
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Volumen total
- 2,1 M €
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Tyler Cowen, economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution.