Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
DeportesOne-OffTecnologíaAjedrezAdopción1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 73.2%
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 43 minutos
9 ene 23, 18:00 UTC1 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Matt Levine, the Bloomberg opinion columnist.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
