Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted?
Bonos y TesoroGeopolíticaOne-OffAmérica Latina1m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 79.2%
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12
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado6 ene 26, 19:49 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Sanctions are considered "lifted" if ANY of the following occur before Dec 31, 2026:
- PDVSA is removed from the OFAC SDN list, or a general license allows broad US business with PDVSA
- Executive order formally terminates or suspends E.O. 13850 (oil sector) or E.O. 13884 (government property blocking)
- US Treasury/State announces Venezuela oil sanctions are "lifted," "ended," or "terminated" (not just "modified" or "waived")
- If sanctions are lifted, resolves N/A. If sanctions are NOT lifted, resolves to this market:
