Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 84% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Está previsto que Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2027.

¿Cómo se liquida Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-0.2pt4%
• October 31+0.1pt1%

+5 resultados más

Volumen total

67,2 M €

Volumen 24h

390,8 mil €

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202922.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt13.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+0.1pt4.7%

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

• No97.5%
• Yes-1.0pt2.5%

Volumen total

469,7 mil €

Volumen 24h

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes-0.5pt77.1%
• No22.9%

Volumen total

391,2 mil €

Volumen 24h

2,9 mil €

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+2.5pt88.9%
• 2-2.0pt11.1%
• 30%

+3 resultados más

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30+9.0pt54%
• December 3112%

Volumen total

15,1 mil €

Volumen 24h

2 mil €

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