Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección5d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 98%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado26 ene 26, 15:05 UTC3 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution Criteria
- Market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating on November 3rd, 2026 is higher on the Silver Bulletin than it was in his first term (using FiveThirtyEight, who, through the Wayback machine, puts his approval at 42.0%).
- If the Silver Bulletin is not available, then I'll use RealClearPolitics for both 2018 and 2026 (43.5% in 2018).
- Market resolves NO if equal or lower.
- Background How popular is Donald Trump? - Silver Bulletin
- Wayback Machine - FiveThirtyEight