Will Trump nominate someone bizarre to the Supreme Court?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 15 oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 71.6%
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14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado24 feb 25, 6:16 UTC21 ene 29, 5:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
I'll have to use my own judgement, but to clarify what I mean by "bizarre", I'm talking about someone like Matt Gaetz or Kash Patel - lacking experience, publicly flaunts the law, that sort of thing.
- The idea of this market is to determine whether Trump will try to appoint someone beyond the norm.
- Therefore, if they are "merely" as controversial as a sitting justice, that would be a NO.
- A nominee would not resolve YES on the basis of ideological extremism unless they were substantially further right than Thomas and Alito, and they would not resolve YES on the basis of potential crimes unless the accusations were more credible than those against Kavanaugh.
- Examples of what would be a clear YES would be Judge Judy or Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- To give you an idea of where "the line" is: I would say Ted Cruz is probably the craziest example I could give that would still resolve NO.
