Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.7%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado8 sept 23, 13:11 UTC1 ene 29, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
KalshiHow much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
Manifold MarketsHow many majors will Tiger Woods win before he dies?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping visit the US again before he dies?
Manifold MarketsArrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurReglas
The status of these two markets:
- https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
- imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump going under house arrest.
- The status of this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre confirms this (though currently it is inconsistent with the "when will trump be imprisoned" market).
- This market resolves YES if Donald J. Trump is held under house arrest in the United States.
Mercados abiertos
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
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+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 693 mil €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
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- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 54,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 266,9 mil €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 248,7 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies??
- Está previsto que Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The status of these two markets: