Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 59.1%
Sí 59.1%Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado27 sept 26, 13:06 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, at some point during 2027, demand for frontier-scale AI inference materially exceeds available compute capacity at prevailing prices.
- Strong evidence means either (A) direct quantitative evidence of a shortfall or (B) multiple observable signs of compute scarcity.
- A. Direct quantitative evidence
- This criterion is met if Epoch AI or another credible analysis estimates that frontier inference demand is equal to or greater than available inference capacity, using reasonably comparable assumptions about model size, context length, and token generation speed.
- An Epoch-style estimate showing a demand/capacity ratio ≥1.0 for a frontier model under roughly 25k:1k or 128k:1k input token workloads, while maintaining about 35 output tokens/second per user, is sufficient.
- For context, Epoch estimated Q4 2025 global Blackwell capacity at roughly 20B output tok/s at 8k context, 6B at 25k, and 0.5B at 128k.
