Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop
One-OffTecnologíaIA3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 90.6%
Pronosticadores
56
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado26 dic 23, 19:45 UTC2 ene 27, 7:54 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop?
Manifold MarketsWill any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.
- For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.
- This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).
- This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.
- I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 802,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volumen total
- 736,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 585,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 resultados más
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop?
- Está previsto que Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.