Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
CommoditiesOne-OffGeopolíticaMiddle EastLatin AmericaPolíticaUS Politics3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.5%
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105
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado11 mar 26, 16:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
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LimitlessWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the US military invades the Kharg Island, located 15 miles off Iran's coast and through which approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports pass.
- Invasion is defined as the takeover of the Island by deployment of troops from any party of the coalition or it's proxies, OR the surrender of the island to the US, due aerial-naval blockade/bombardment.
- The market resolves NO if this does not occur by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, BBC, etc.) confirming sustained US military operations on the island or its surrender.
- Temporary military strikes or damage to facilities do not constitute invasion/control, unless if there's troops on the ground OR total surrender caused by said strikes.
