Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualFully fair 65%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
34
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado8 nov 24, 3:42 UTC1 ene 27, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
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This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.
- (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)
- This market resolves to "the named outcome" if:
- More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.
