Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualFully fair 65%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
34
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado8 nov 24, 3:42 UTC1 ene 27, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsIsrael holds free and fair election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsFree & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiReglas
This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.
- (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)
- This market resolves to "the named outcome" if:
- More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.