Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 94%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado23 ago 26, 23:43 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the purported construction of a complex structure on $S^6$ by Levent Alpöge is verified and widely accepted by the mathematics community.
- "Verification and wide acceptance" is defined as meeting at least one of the following conditions:
- Journal Publication: The paper (or a revised version of it presenting the same fundamental construction) is published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal of high standing.
- Community Consensus: Leading experts reach a clear consensus that the construction is correct and free of fatal gaps.
- This market will resolve to NO if:
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct??
- Está previsto que Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria