¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 79.4% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

IAOne-Off2m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 79.4%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 21 horas

Desactualizado

1 abr 23, 18:39 UTC1 ene 27, 5:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.

If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.