Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?
IAOne-Off9m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 97.6%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado1 ago 26, 6:35 UTC1 ago 27, 6:31 UTC
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Resolves YES if:
- A paper or preprint containing the claimed proof is made public, AND
- Within the market window, expert consensus accepts the proof as correct — operationalized as any of: (a) publication/acceptance in a peer-reviewed venue, (b) a complete formalization in a proof assistant (e.g. Lean) verified end-to-end, or (c) public endorsement of correctness by at least three recognized researchers in sofic groups / group approximation theory (e.g. people with published work in the area) with no credible unresolved objection outstanding.
- Resolves NO if:
- A fatal, unpatched error is identified and acknowledged, or the claim is retracted, OR
- No paper materializes and the claim is walked back or abandoned, OR
