Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
IAOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 82.9%
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado19 ago 25, 21:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%
- Top 7 LLMs Ranked in 2025: GPT-4o, Gemini, Claude & More.
- To establish the 2025 baseline:
- On Dec 31, 2025, identify the LLM with the highest average score across the "Core Benchmark Suite" (defined below)
- This becomes the baseline for calculating 10% improvement
- CORE BENCHMARK SUITE (to avoid cherry-picking):
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??
- Está previsto que Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%