Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 36.8%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado22 ago 25, 3:06 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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FutuurReglas
Resolution criteria
- This resolves on China’s first crewed mission that successfully lands taikonauts on the lunar surface (soft landing achieved; mere lunar orbit or aborts don’t count).
- Outcome is determined from official post-mission reports/broadcasts by CMSA/Xinhua/CCTV; if unavailable, reputable wire services (Reuters/AP) may be used.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is the first to step onto the lunar surface on that mission, per official timeline/coverage.
- “the named outcome” if a woman steps onto the surface after a male crewmate from the same mission has already done so.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is assigned to that mission but does not ride the lander and stays in lunar orbit.
