Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window?
TecnologíaOne-OffSpaceCiencia2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 57%
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3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado31 ago 26, 13:19 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Description:
- ESA's Rosalind Franklin rover mission (ExoMars) is currently baselined for launch in the September–December 2028 Mars transfer window, using a NASA-procured Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral.
- The program has slipped multiple times before (2018 → 2020 → 2022 → 2028), so this asks whether the current baseline holds.
- This market resolves YES if the Rosalind Franklin spacecraft launches on its way to Mars at any point within the 2028 Mars launch opportunity (i.e., before the window closes).
- This market resolves NO if, before the 2028 window closes, ESA or NASA officially announces the mission has slipped past the 2028 window (e.g., pushed to 2031 or later), or if the mission is cancelled, or if no launch occurs by 2028.
- Resolution source: Official statements from ESA (esa.int) and/or NASA, or a successful launch confirmed via public tracking (e.g., NASA Launch Services Program, SpaceX launch manifest).
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 57% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window??
- Está previsto que Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Description: