Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 57.8%
Pronosticadores
73
Tipo de pregunta
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Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 minutos
11 sept 23, 9:11 UTC1 ene 50, 15:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketWhich Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsLowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
KalshiArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
FutuurWill more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
Manifold MarketsAntarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurReglas
The criteria for resolving yes is that the Arctic must be fully ice-free at any point in time between now and the start of 2050.
- The Arctic does not need to be fully gone by the year 2050, it just needs to be ice-free at a moment in time.
- Whether the Arctic is fully ice-free will be based on news articles from reputable sources.
- If there's any controversy, I will discuss about it with Manifold users in the comments.
- As a last resort of resolution criteria, this question will resolve Yes when the Arctic ice coverage (at a threshold 15% ice density) falls below 100,000 km squared, as reported in numbers from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
- The Arctic has less ice cover in summer than in winter, so it is plausible that in summer, the Arctic will be fully ice-free, but in winter, it will reappear.
