Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 17:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 85.4%
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binary
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Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado25 jul 26, 12:23 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX plans and executes a booster catch attempt using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla) during Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated flight test of the Starship/Super Heavy system, also known as IFT-15).
- To resolve as YES:
- SpaceX's official mission profile prior to launch must plan for a return-to-launch-site booster catch, and the booster must launch and perform its return maneuver toward the launch pad/tower.
- This includes successful catches, crashes at the pad/tower, or mid-flight aborts/diversions to a water splashdown for safety reasons (where the catch was actively attempted but waived off during descent, similar to the flight profile of Starship Flight 6).
- This market will resolve to NO if:
