Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 oct 2026, 13:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 89.5%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado13 abr 26, 14:28 UTC5 mar 29, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf the AfD enters the federal government after the next Bundestag election, will §86a StGB be repealed or altered?
Manifold MarketsWill the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
Manifold MarketsThe next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) receives at least 5% of the party list votes ("Zweitstimme") in the next German federal election.
- It will resolve to "No" otherwise.
- The official result will be determined by the Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin).
- Verification can be made via the official website at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/.
- If the party meets the threshold through winning three constituencies despite failing the 5% party list vote, the market will still resolve to "Yes."
