Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
One-OffTecnologíaCiencia3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 70.9%
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7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado8 abr 25, 8:57 UTC1 ene 30, 0:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
This market assesses whether quantum computers will demonstrate a practical advantage in cryptographic applications before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution criteria: - YES: A quantum computer successfully breaks a currently secure encryption standard (like RSA-2048) OR demonstrates practical quantum-resistant cryptography capabilities that are deployed in production systems. - NO: No such practical advantage is demonstrated by the end of 2029.
- The achievement must be publicly verified by multiple reputable institutions.
