Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 69.1%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado11 oct 25, 16:59 UTC1 ene 31, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiReglas
Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory.
- Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting projects.
- In January, Honduras kicked out the right-wing government that passed the ZEDE law and replaced it with a socialist party led by Xiomara Castro, which had made opposition to the ZEDEs part of its platform.
- In April, the new government repealed the ZEDE law, with uncertain consequences." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722
- Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if "officially shutting down" occurs through any of the following scenarios:
- Honduran government passing actual laws making ZEDE void, rescinds all special autonomy, and legal regimes (requires constitutional amendment?)
Mercados abiertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+0.6pt93%
- Yes-0.6pt7%
- Volumen total
- 19,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 210,9 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-4.5pt78%
- November 30,-16.5pt61%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Volumen total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt24.8%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt20.8%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt16.8%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 resultados más
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 69% a fecha de 19 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory.