Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.6%
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Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado14 jul 26, 11:19 UTC1 feb 28, 0:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-28.1pt48%
- 1530+0.1pt4%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 272,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 73,7 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.1pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt81%
+9 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt86%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,78%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- Google39%
- Microsoft32%
- SpaceXAI22%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 31,6 mil €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt88.3%
- Gemini+3.0pt4.5%
- ChatGPT-5.0pt1.8%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 41,7 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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- OpenAI market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Tencent market share this week
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.