Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 55%
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39
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado22 feb 24, 8:04 UTC2 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
Manifold MarketsContingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a
- This market resolves YES if one of the 10 winners of the above market claim that we are in a "winter" for AI at any time before 2030.
- Here are the names:
- Ilya Sutskever
- Andrej Karpathy
- Yoshua Bengio
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 55% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a