Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?
PolíticaOne-OffAjedrezPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónDeportes1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 79.2%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 24 minutos
23 jun 26, 16:16 UTC31 may 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill One Nation’s primary vote share in the next federal election exceed 15%?
Manifold MarketsWill the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats hold at least 235 seats in the House following the 2026 election?
ForecastExWill Democrats hold at least 240 seats in the House following the 2026 election?
ForecastExReglas
The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028.
- If One Nation gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as Labor did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.
