Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 53%
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6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado6 ago 26, 0:41 UTC6 ago 27, 0:39 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
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Manifold MarketsWill Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
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KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X
- Partner Market on open-source models: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-opensource-models-be-more-or-l
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on my judgement; feel free to ask me questions in the comments or post supporting material.
- Resolves YES if MORE aligned.
- Resolves NO if LESS aligned.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 63,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 63,6 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 27,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 27,4 mil €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 53% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now??
- Está previsto que Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? se resuelva el 6 de agosto de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X