Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 92.5%
Pronosticadores
71
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 23, 5:16 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.
- If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??
- Está previsto que Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2039.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.