Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?
MonthlyTecnologíaSociedad y cultura4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 82%
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado25 nov 22, 9:28 UTC1 ene 31, 22:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves to YES if:
- Officially reported (or best available estimate) of Monthly Active Users for any part of 2030 are higher for Mastodon than Twitter.
- Twitter doesn't exist in 2030 but Mastodon does and has at least 2 million active monthly users* at any point in 2030.
- And NO in every other case.
- *The number reported by them in November 2022.
- If they don't reach at least that in 2030 and Twitter doesn't exist then effectively they have both failed as far as this question is concerned.