Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado se resolvió: No (97.1%)
Resuelto: 12 oct 2026, 14:18
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 9 sept 2026, 2:26 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Tendencias
Ganada
Perdida
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Reglas
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering June 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial June 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution.
- If the June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the June 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by August 6, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "June 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "June 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026 for 2026-07-30 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
