Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?
DeportesOne-OffTecnologíaSoccer5aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 74.1%
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado8 may 26, 20:02 UTC30 jun 32, 23:59 UTC
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A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).
- Resolves YES if, in calendar year 2030, traffic fatalities have NOT declined relative to each city's pre-commercial-launch baseline year in any of the 5 largest Waymo deployment cities.
- Resolves NO if at least one such city shows a decline relative to its pre-Waymo baseline.
- The 5 cities (locked in at market creation): Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta.
- Pre-commercial-launch baseline year: the full calendar year before paid public Waymo service began in that city.
- Resolution source: NHTSA FARS data, CY2030 vs each city's baseline year.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 74% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- Está previsto que Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? se resuelva el 30 de junio de 2032.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).